The Spanish stock market has risen 7.93% this year, characterized by the recovery of the economy thanks to the progress of vaccination, the rise in inflation and energy prices, as well as the beginning of the withdrawal of monetary stimulus by some central banks.
The extension of vaccination, despite the problems that occurred in the first months due to delays in the delivery of vials and the doubts caused by the adverse effects of some vaccines, has been one of the factors that has most influenced this year in the market, apart from the different "waves" of infections by covid-19, especially by the one caused at the end of the year by the omicron variant, which has reduced profits in the Spanish market due to the weight of "tourist" values.
The evolution of inflation, increasing throughout the year, fundamentally due to the increase in the price of electricity, has become another relevant issue due to its implications for monetary policy and the bond market, assets that compete with equities.
The Spanish CPI ends the year at 6.7%, according to provisional data, the highest level since March 1992.
The recovery of the economy should also be noted. After GDP fell 10.8% last year and began the year with a decrease of 0.7% between January and March, it grew at a rate of 2.6% in the third quarter.
The expectations of greater economic growth (the Government calculates that the GDP will increase this year by 6.5%, which the Bank of Spain and some international organizations lower) benefited the cyclical values, those linked to the improvement in activity, such as banks, construction companies or steel companies, which also stimulated the stock market.
Another favorable factor can be found in business results, since the companies in the main stock market index of the Spanish stock market, the IBEX 35, accumulated a net profit of close to 41,000 million euros in the first nine months of the year, 50% more than in the same pre-pandemic period of 2019, as well as in the expected distribution of those profits through dividends.
The supply crisis and the increase in the price of certain raw materials also affected the stock market (the kilowatt hour exceeded 300 euros, while the barrel of Brent oil fluctuated between 51.8 dollars at the end of 2020 and the maximum of 86, 7 at the end of last October, with a low of $50.56 at the beginning of January, ending the year around $80).
At the end of the year, the US Federal Reserve began to reduce the amount of debt purchases decided to mitigate the effect of the pandemic crisis (it also hinted that it will raise interest rates next year) and the Bank of England raised rates interest in the middle of this month, from 0.1 to 0.25%.
For the director of Digital Offer at Singular Bank, Victoria Torre, these have been the main conditioning factors of this year, which she has described as "complicated, but we could say that, once again, a record year", as has happened with all-time highs in several international markets, although "in the Spanish stock market we have fallen behind", so that in 2022 it could have a "greater upward potential".
He has also highlighted the influence on high inflation of "supply problems or the high price of raw materials", with which we will have to live "for a certain period of time" and on the change in the monetary policy of some central banks, which will take time to apply the ECB”.
The stock market has experienced several periods this year: fall in January (the annual minimum was recorded on the 28th of this month at 7,713.5 points), recovery in the following five months (it reached the annual maximum in mid-June at 9,310.8 points) and withdrawal and stabilization in the final phase, in which historic records were set on Wall Street and in some European markets.
The only one of the great values of the IBEX that has fallen has been Iberdrola (fifth by losses of that index), 7.49%, affected in part by the regulatory changes in the sector; BBVA has risen 33.66% after the fluctuations of the Turkish lira; Repsol 30.17%; Telefónica 29.48%; Banco Santander 18.66% and Inditex 12.14% after the changes in its executive leadership.
The biggest annual rise of the IBEX has corresponded to a rookie, Rovi, which has gained 96%; Fluidra 70.04%; Banco Sabadell 67.18%, benefited by its subsidiary in the United Kingdom; Naturgy 57.77% for the takeover bid for IFM and ArcelorMittal 50.14% for the recovery and reduction of its debt.
Only a quarter of the IBEX stocks, nine, have ended with losses, led by Siemens Gamesa by giving up 36.33%, while Grifols has given up 28.16%; Solaria 27.58% and PharmaMar 19.17%.
As for the annual result of the major world markets, in Europe the rise of 29.21% in Paris stood out; Milan has won 23%; Frankfurt 15.79% and London 14.59%. In Asia, Tokyo rose 4.44% and Hong Kong, with the possible bankruptcy of Evergrande hovering, fell 13.01%, while on Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Index advanced a little more than 19%, the Nasdaq somewhat more than 23% and the S&P 500 close to 28%.